The Curious Case of Jonas Valanciunas

Courtesy: http://www.zimbio.com/Jonas+Valanciunas+Dwane+Casey/pictures/pro

Jonas Valanciunas - The media buzzword for anyone looking to get the attention of Raptors fans. Terrible 4th quarter play, coupled with questionable substitution patterns however, have all culminated to make this an intriguing topic for discussion.  

At this point it’s common knowledge that Dwayne Casey loves small ball.  He probably still uses flip phones for the versatility and spacing they offer over traditional handsets.  Does this always work however? (Small ball, not flip phones).  Does Dwayne Casey have a method to his madness, or is he simply a mad scientist who’s lost focus?

Showing disappointment, it can be argued, is unjustified given such an unexpected record.  I whole heartedly disagree with this logic.  Of course we can argue.  Just because the bar’s low, doesn’t mean that expectations can’t evolve.  The desire to achieve something greater shouldn’t be subdued by past expectations.  It should mold to fit the current state, and the current state is pretty badass. 

By the Numbers

Numbers don’t lie; they drop truth bombs - tune out now if you don’t like numbers…or truth bombs.  Defensively Jonas isn’t the greatest, he’s okay, right in the meaty part of the bell curve.   Sure Jonas’s numbers don’t scream Marc Gasol, but limiting play in crucial stretches doesn’t get him closer to that level.  To give an idea of where he stacks I’ve broken the analysis into two parts.  An external assessment – comparing Jonas to his peers, and an internal assessment – comparing “4^th Quarter” Jonas to “First 3 Quarters” Jonas. 

External Analysis  

Usage

Among Starting Center’s with more than 25 games played, Jonas ranks 3^rd from the bottom in “Average 4^th Quarter minutes played,” at 5.4.  That’s 10 spots behind Kendrick I- grab-rebounds-through-the-power-of-my-anger Perkins.  His 4^th quarter usage isn’t stellar either.  At 14.6% Jonas ranks 17^th out of 26 Starting Centers.  However, given that the Raptors feature a guard heavy lineup, one that often falls in love with the midrange, that’s not bad.  This usage may ignite some frustration, but it’s generally in line with comparable peers in guard focused lineups (ie Marcin Gortat, Joakin Noah).  In the exact same sample size however, his minutes are 3^rd from the bottom. 

Defense

From a defensive standpoint I’ll focus on Opponent FG percentage at the Rim, and Defensive Efficiency. As a team the Raptors hold opponents to 50.9% on shots at the rim, good enough for 10^th in the league - surprisingly good.  Individually Jonas’s opponents shoot 48.1%, which is just a hair behind Andre Drummond at 47.9%.   This is around league average for a center.  It’s his team defense, measured by his DefRtg, which is atrocious.  Among his peers Jonas ranks dead last in the 4^th Quarter with a NetRtg of -16.5, which gives cadence to Casey’s crunch time preference in deferring to a more mobile big (ie. PPAT).

From an external standpoint it’s obvious that his 4^th quarter team defense is terrible.  His minutes are near the bottom, but his defensive flaws have a large effect on that.  Based on this external comparison, Casey does have a point. If that’s the case however, then how is Jonas earning minutes throughout other portions of the game?

Internal Analysis

Overall	GP	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg	OREB%	DREB%	TS%	USG%
Quarters1-3	47	7.6	106.4	105.5	0.93	11.5	25.6	62.6	20.16
4th Quarter	33	5.4	101.9	118.3	-16.5	8.4	20.4	62.6	14.7

When we actually dig into the numbers it’s pretty glaring the disparity between Jonas’s stats in the first three quarters vs. his numbers in the 4^th.  The most noticeable difference is his defensive efficiency - 118.3 in the 4^th quarter vs. 105.5 in the first three.  The Raptors as a team have a 4th Quarter DefRtg of 106.5 – good enough for 23^rd in the league.  For a team that preaches defense, and makes decisions predicated on this philosophy, their execution is terrible.   The greatest unknown however, is how the team DefRtg would be affected if Jonas received consistent 4^th quarter minutes.  Would the law of averages begin to skew his 4^th quarter numbers towards the mean?

Sure, compared to his peers, Dwayne Casey’s got a point.  His big is near the bottom of the league in nearly all defensive categories, but not throughout the game.  The issue only surfaces in the fourth quarter, which leads to a larger psychological question.  How much has the inconsistent usage of his Center affected Jonas’s confidence in the fourth quarter?  It’s clear that Jonas is league average in the first three quarters, but near the bottom in the fourth.  No other starting Center in the league has such a dramatic swing between the two segments.  It’s obvious that by sitting Jonas for long stretches of the fourth, Casey’s fiddling with a fragile confidence.  It’s like that time on Seinfeld when Elaine’s ex tells her that she’s got a big head, causing her to question everything she’d known about the size of her perfectly normal head.  What seemed acceptable before now suddenly became troubling.  By way of inconsistent minutes, and benching, Dwayne Casey is the ex who keeps telling Jonas he’s got a big head.  Suddenly all the goodwill built during his first three quarters no longer matters.      

It’s obvious the Raptors are better defensively when Jonas hits the bench, but to develop talent requires investing both frustration and hope.  Yea they might feel the weight of some growing pains; they might even loose on account of Jonas missing a blatant assignment.  But these are the growing pains associated with developing youth, especially at the 5.  The Raptors aren’t great right now, they’re good.  Why not use a “good” season to develop a piece that can help you become great. 

How The Raptors Found Their Mojo

Courtesy: http://media.bradenton.com/smedia/2015/01/28/22/17/285-1ogQVi.AuSt.55.jpeg

Halfway through the third it finally hit the Raptors – “Hey, We don’t suck.  Why are we playing like this? Why is Rudy Gay lighting us up for 17 in the first half? And why is Demarcus Cousins so angry all the time?”

They answered the first two questions by torching the Kings in the latter half of the third, along with much of the fourth - buoyed by a defense that finally gave a shit, and an offense that finally exorcised the spirit of Kevin O’Neil (The magician behind an offense that once dropped 56 points….in a game).  The last question really has no answer.  Perhaps Cousins is a really nice guy having a case of the Bynum’s.  Or perhaps it hits him every couple of minutes - "I"m playing on the Kings".  A franchise that was once run by two Maloofs (adjective), and now an owner who fired the teams head coach after its best start in nearly a decade.  (I’m all for eccentric owners, they really make things interesting, most of them however, suffer from the overconfidence of past achievements.  Vivek exemplifies this to the nth degree.  He’s like the Jason Terry of owners).    

I’d also like to thank the Raptors for not making me look like an idiot with yesterday’s Overreaction column.  It was never Tuesday’s win that inspired my column, but the way in which they won.  The Raptors looked like a confident team.  Much like the big kid in the playground who’s always picked on by the skinny kid, the Raptors finally had enough, and crushed the little turd.  This carried over to last night. 

Just two weeks ago the Raptors were embarrassed at home by the likes of the Pistons, Pelicans (minus AD), and the Hornets (Minus Al Jefferson).  In between they were slaughtered by tougher opponents like the Hawks, Griz and Suns.  With this in mind, a couple of blowouts against two weaker opponents is a welcome sign.   

Team	GP	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	AST%	AST/TO	AST Ratio	TO Ratio	PACE
Last 2 Games	2	96	117.2	99.5	64.9	1.72	19.3	15.2	94.04
Pre Injury	26	1263	111	102.6	53.3	1.71	16.2	12.5	95.25
Jan 2 - Jan 24 (vs. Det)	12	576	101.7	105.9	57.5	1.34	16.2	16.1	97.31

Take a look at the table above.  What stands out most is the improved Defense.  Another point of emphasis is their PACE, which slowed down considerably from the unsustainable PACE during their shitty stretch.  A slower PACE typically translates to a more organized defense.  Of course team defensive schemes trump everything, but an up tempo PACE often leads to fast breaks on the other end, which destroy Defensive efficiency.  The Offensive Rating is a little crazy right now, but there’s no question that it’s much better than the 101.7 rating during the shitty stretch. 

The turnovers last night were a bit of a concern, but they did address their first quarter woes by not looking like a Tier 3 Hoop Dome Summer league team.  What impressed me most was a Demar Derozen back to his old self - fearlessly attacking the rim and getting to the line a bunch. 

The real test for these Raptors comes this weekend, when they roll into Washington.  They’ve done a good job at building confidence by beating on the weaker guys.  Heading into Washington they should hopefully feel like Jason Terry after a 1-12 shooting night, ie. on top of the world (that 1 shot being a dagger that keeps the irrational confidence machine humming).  Here’s hoping that the stat line doesn’t reflect a typical Jason Terry shooting night.

Are The Raps Back to Normal? (The Overreaction Column)

Damn that felt good.  Two games removed from the Philly debacle , the Raptors kind’a sort’a looked like their old selves (Pre- Demar-Injury selves, not 5-years-prior-to-December-2013 selves).  The ball was moving, almost everyone (Jonas says hi!) was getting a touch, and the defense looked solid.  That’s the story our eyes told, do the numbers agree?

In short, they sure as hell do. 

For comparison purposes I’ve split the Raptors season into two groups – Pre-Demar injury, and the shitty stretch (Jan 2 – Jan 25).  Yesterday pleased our eyes because, by the numbers, it reflected the same “Pre-Injury” level of performance, to which we’ve grown accustomed:

Team	GP	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	AST%	AST/TO	AST Ratio	TO Ratio
VS Indy	1	48	113.1	94.7	61.8	1.75	17.4	13
Pre Injury (Oct 29 – Nov 28)	26	1263	111	102.6	53.3	1.71	16.2	12.5
The shitty stretch (Jan 2 – Jan 25)	12	576	101.7	105.9	57.5	1.34	16.2	16.1

It all starts with turnovers.  During the shitty stretch the Raptors averaged 16.1 turnovers per 100 possessions.  Good enough for 21^st in the league. Always hailed as a low turnover team (I remember the days when it was compulsory to point out Jose Calderon’s AST/TO ratio with every mention of his name),  The Raptors got away from this during the shitty stretch.  A lot had to do with tired legs, as well as guys trying to do too much (aka crunch time Kyle). Yesterday they got back to their old selves, turning the ball over  only13 times per 100 possessions - during the pre-injury stretch they sat at 12.5.

The assists ratio crept a little higher, but the biggest difference was an offense finally nailing open looks.  The OffRtg (113.1) climbed to the normal badassery we’ve grown accustomed to.  Of course a rating of 111 (pre-demar) is unsustainable, but given our fire power, so is a “shitty stretch” rating of 101.7.  The biggest difference however, has been on the defensive end, where the reduction in turnovers, coupled with Demar’s return, have had a profound impact.   

Granted, one game is a very very small sample size.  This may all change tonight if they make Darren Colison look like DJ Augstin, who looked like Old Derrick Rose just two nights ago.  On top of all this, there’s still something troubling that 1^st Quarter offense.  But for sanity's sake, let’s hope the shitty stretch was an aberration.  Yesterday was a good sign of that.  

The Toronto Raptors: A Tale of Two Teams

Like the regret of a long night on King West, this season’s Toronto Raptors have been mesmerizing and cringe worthy, dividing the two - a single event.  Sure the night started off great, but at some point it took an odd turn, you don’t know when, you don’t know how, but you now find yourself laying down with your eyes open, trying to piece it together, trying to figure out just what happened.

Some would draw the line sometime after the Portland game - where the Raptors lost in a valiant

overtime effort.  I draw the line on that Friday night on November 28^th, when Demar, slipping on Drakes tears, pulled his groin.  In the following ten games the team showed the poise of a first year undergrad entering residence life for the first time.  They were giddy, they were passing, they were making shots, and in between timeouts we even witnessed Lou Williams destroying Greg Stiemsma in a heated game of beer pong.  It all came crashing down however. 

Why? 

Because much like the first year undergrad, it was all a façade, created by a honeymoon period.  The team began missing mom’s home cooked meals and the pressures of adult responsibilities became burdensome.  I mean who wants to do their laundry, clean their room, and attend lectures when there’s no one nagging.  Sure the CA might ask why your room is such a filth, or why your unwashed towel smells like the corner of College and Yonge, but eff them, they don’t control you.  You have the freedom to do whatever you want, and you’re going to take full advantage God damnit.  So you start staying out late.  What starts off as a single challenge of beer pong turns into a nightly tradition, and before you know it, you’re knee deep in ping pong balls and red plastic cups.   You do this because you know that none of your peers will grill you.  But soon enough it catches up, and when you fail that bird course everyone is supposed to pass, this house of cards you built comes crashing down.  (In case you've missed the metaphor entirely, laundry and cleaning are defense, playing beer pong and staying out till all hours are offence, and your mom is Demar.  Or your daddy.  However you like it. I guess that makes Dwayne Casey the responsible asshat CA who no one liked in the first couple of months, but slowly grew on as they realized this guy knew his shit  (Sidebar, I don’t think Dwayne Casey knows his shit)). 

So why have the Raptors failed to reach the same level of excellence we witnessed in the first two months of the season? 

Well let’s start with what matters most to coach Casey.  Defense.  Frankly, since Demar went down, the Raptors defense has been easier to get past than 100 level security at the ACC in the fourth quarter.  Now I’m not saying Demar is an all-world defender.  Because he most certainly is not.  All advanced metrics paint him average at best.  What he does on the offensive end however, is where his impact is felt on the defensive end.  His ability to slowdown the game – resulting in less fast breaks for the opposition. His ability to move around on offense – tiring out his defender.  His ability to show leadership and intensity – intangibles that filter through the team.  This was missing, in place you had an immature TRoss, who despite his best efforts is not cut from the same cloth as Demar (If Demar is wool, Tross is flannel).  Now you may ask.  Wait.  Since Demar’s been back we’ve been stinking up the joint to the exact same degree as the 5 games prior to his return.  To this I would say, not really.  Yes the results haven’t been great, but when you strip away the noise of missed open looks (shots I assume any player in the NBA should be able to make), and strength of opponent, you see that defensively, we’re back to where we want to be. 

Since Demar’s return the Raptors defensive rating has climbed back to 101, good enough for 10^th in the league.  During his absence the defensive rating plummeted to 107.3 or 4^th last in the league.   Is this a fluke?  No.  Why?  Because you’re stupid (apparently this rebuttal only works in a face to face argument with an 8 year old).  But really, it’s because even when you isolate pre-injury Demar, the Raptors featured a Defensive rating of 100.9, good for 9^th in the league.  So yes, despite fans claims of Demar’s individual defensive flaws, he is by the numbers, an excellent team defender.   

Granted the offensive rating took a dive - 96.5 post Demar, 110.2 pre Demar, but I chalk that up to an aberration due to the trickledown effect of a tired Kyle Lowry, and a Demar trying to find his flow.  If the offense settles like the defense, which I suspect happens, then everything is once again right with the world.   Who knows, maybe the morning radio shows begin taking notice again, slotting the Raptors somewhere between their two 14 hour Hockey segments.  (asking too much?). 

So yes, this season has been the tale of two teams, but not to the degree of “Panac” that Raptors fans have surmised.  And yes, they haven’t been playing the best OFFENSIVE basketball recently, but don’t let that cloud the impact of an improved (or shall I say back to normal) defense.  The other end of this argument is that opponents are also getting stronger and better, but that’s beside the point.  What the Raptors control is their own quality of play, which by most measures is getting better.  And if that’s not enough for you, then a version of the post Rudy Gay Trade, “We the underdog” Raptors is just a 3 hour drive south.       

Kyle Lowry: The All-Star We've Always Wanted

Kyle Lowry the All-Star.  Kyle Lowry the All-Star Starter.  Not since the Boshtrich have the words Raptors, All-Star, Starter been uttered in the same sentence - Alternatively neither have the words “soft cottenelle bitch,” and never shall they.  We did it Canada (#wetheclingy). Through our crazed persistence, over the top in your face messaging (looking at you Matt #NBABALLOT  Devlin), and pleas to government officials (Thanks Stephen Harper!) our boy made it!

But we just can’t have nice things can we?

Well, not surprisingly, there’s a camp out there claiming Kyle’s inclusion as undeserved.   A very small camp.  Not even really a camp, more like a couple of kids pitching a tent in the backyard.  Actually it’s more like one kid, and he’s not a kid, he’s my idiot friend.  Okay I’ll admit, I just need an angle, one that lets me justify just how badass Kyle really is, and why Kyrie Irving sucks, and to re-inforce why my friend is such an idiot. 

By all statistical measures Kyle Lowry is having the best season in Raptors Point Guard history – bold statement, I know.  I live on the edge.  If you told every NBA team to make a list of their quality point guards – past and present, then take that list to the grocery store, the Lakers and Celtics would spend an entire day at Loblaws.  The Raptors would need about five minutes at an Esso On-The-Run, which includes 4 minutes for pumping gas.  Point being, we have an insignificant history. 

Yea sure Alvin Williams was great, but statistically he didn’t do much.  We loved him because he was part of a machine that made VC do unimaginably cool shit.  We also loved him because of his heart and determination.  We loved Jose Calderon for a while – we backed him up when KG wagged his finger in a childish power-play.  We also loved him because he was a great teammate (Sidebar, I wonder who’s taken over Gatorade distribution duties.  I have my money on Stiemsma.  I mean if he doesn’t, then what exactly is he good for?  He’s not even that great a hype guy – more on this in a later post).  In Kyle we have the perfect mix.  He’s got heart, determination, toughness, and a team first attitude.  The best part?  Kyle is more than just the, “he has heart and determination and he try’s really really hard” good.  He’s legit good, to the point where others notice, and statistics back up.   

We as Toronto sports fans have been subject to such an array of dismal talent, that our definition of great morphed somewhere along the way.  We began throwing ourselves behind players who just looked like they gave a shit (What’s up JYD, John McDonald, Leo Komarov), because when they did have talent, shit didn’t matter (eg. Chris Bosh, VC, Phil Kessel).  In Kyle, we finally have a dude who fits this morphed definition of great, but also proves it in a way that the rest of the un-tortured world does, through statistics. 

Among Eastern Conference players Kyle ranks 6^th in PER (I’m not counting Hassan Whiteside, no logic, I just don’t like his name, and he fits into my 2012 Jeremy Lin outlier rule).  Among Eastern Conference point guards he’s 2^nd in PER – Jeff Teague is first, but he’s got a usage 2 points below Kyle, which really fluffs efficiency (the more you handle the ball, the more tired you are, the less efficient you become).   Point being Kyle is really good from an efficiency perspective.  He’s also extraordinary from a pure numbers perspective – you can go to ESPN and check those yourself.  Granted he’s not been playing his best ball the last couple of weeks, but shit happens, he’s human, you get tired.   Kiss my ass idiot friend. After carrying the burden for nearly a month the dude is flat out beat. 

This shouldn't be a stain on his record however.  When you look at Kyle’s entire body of work it’s easy to surmise that he really is the most important piece to the puzzle.  A motivated Kyle Lowry is the best weapon to have.  Just look at what he did last year when he entered “eff you” mode after that botched Knicks trade.  Point being, a two week aberration isn't enough to derail a year of proven success.  I understand that as a fan base we've been taunted by greatness over and over - I’m looking at you 2002 VC, 2001 Maple Leafs, 2013 Blue Jays, Pre inception over-hyped Toronto FC.   In those moments however, when greatness does present itself, sometimes it’s worth it to enjoy it, without qualification.  Sustained greatness is a rarity that only comes every so often, but to sustain you must first achieve.   

So to my idiot friend who thinks that two weeks of average basketball tells the tale of an 82 game season.  I testify that 2 months of out of your mind basketball doesn't either, but the middle ground is still pretty damn sweet.  So don’t let his recent struggles distract you from truly appreciating the player we have.  We've always wanted a guy with grit, determination, and heart.  We finally have him, the kicker.  He’s actually really good.