How The Raptors Found Their Mojo

Courtesy: http://media.bradenton.com/smedia/2015/01/28/22/17/285-1ogQVi.AuSt.55.jpeg

Halfway through the third it finally hit the Raptors – “Hey, We don’t suck.  Why are we playing like this? Why is Rudy Gay lighting us up for 17 in the first half? And why is Demarcus Cousins so angry all the time?”

They answered the first two questions by torching the Kings in the latter half of the third, along with much of the fourth - buoyed by a defense that finally gave a shit, and an offense that finally exorcised the spirit of Kevin O’Neil (The magician behind an offense that once dropped 56 points….in a game).  The last question really has no answer.  Perhaps Cousins is a really nice guy having a case of the Bynum’s.  Or perhaps it hits him every couple of minutes - "I"m playing on the Kings".  A franchise that was once run by two Maloofs (adjective), and now an owner who fired the teams head coach after its best start in nearly a decade.  (I’m all for eccentric owners, they really make things interesting, most of them however, suffer from the overconfidence of past achievements.  Vivek exemplifies this to the nth degree.  He’s like the Jason Terry of owners).    

I’d also like to thank the Raptors for not making me look like an idiot with yesterday’s Overreaction column.  It was never Tuesday’s win that inspired my column, but the way in which they won.  The Raptors looked like a confident team.  Much like the big kid in the playground who’s always picked on by the skinny kid, the Raptors finally had enough, and crushed the little turd.  This carried over to last night. 

Just two weeks ago the Raptors were embarrassed at home by the likes of the Pistons, Pelicans (minus AD), and the Hornets (Minus Al Jefferson).  In between they were slaughtered by tougher opponents like the Hawks, Griz and Suns.  With this in mind, a couple of blowouts against two weaker opponents is a welcome sign.   

Team	GP	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	AST%	AST/TO	AST Ratio	TO Ratio	PACE
Last 2 Games	2	96	117.2	99.5	64.9	1.72	19.3	15.2	94.04
Pre Injury	26	1263	111	102.6	53.3	1.71	16.2	12.5	95.25
Jan 2 - Jan 24 (vs. Det)	12	576	101.7	105.9	57.5	1.34	16.2	16.1	97.31

Take a look at the table above.  What stands out most is the improved Defense.  Another point of emphasis is their PACE, which slowed down considerably from the unsustainable PACE during their shitty stretch.  A slower PACE typically translates to a more organized defense.  Of course team defensive schemes trump everything, but an up tempo PACE often leads to fast breaks on the other end, which destroy Defensive efficiency.  The Offensive Rating is a little crazy right now, but there’s no question that it’s much better than the 101.7 rating during the shitty stretch. 

The turnovers last night were a bit of a concern, but they did address their first quarter woes by not looking like a Tier 3 Hoop Dome Summer league team.  What impressed me most was a Demar Derozen back to his old self - fearlessly attacking the rim and getting to the line a bunch. 

The real test for these Raptors comes this weekend, when they roll into Washington.  They’ve done a good job at building confidence by beating on the weaker guys.  Heading into Washington they should hopefully feel like Jason Terry after a 1-12 shooting night, ie. on top of the world (that 1 shot being a dagger that keeps the irrational confidence machine humming).  Here’s hoping that the stat line doesn’t reflect a typical Jason Terry shooting night.

The Toronto Raptors: A Tale of Two Teams

Like the regret of a long night on King West, this season’s Toronto Raptors have been mesmerizing and cringe worthy, dividing the two - a single event.  Sure the night started off great, but at some point it took an odd turn, you don’t know when, you don’t know how, but you now find yourself laying down with your eyes open, trying to piece it together, trying to figure out just what happened.

Some would draw the line sometime after the Portland game - where the Raptors lost in a valiant

overtime effort.  I draw the line on that Friday night on November 28^th, when Demar, slipping on Drakes tears, pulled his groin.  In the following ten games the team showed the poise of a first year undergrad entering residence life for the first time.  They were giddy, they were passing, they were making shots, and in between timeouts we even witnessed Lou Williams destroying Greg Stiemsma in a heated game of beer pong.  It all came crashing down however. 

Why? 

Because much like the first year undergrad, it was all a façade, created by a honeymoon period.  The team began missing mom’s home cooked meals and the pressures of adult responsibilities became burdensome.  I mean who wants to do their laundry, clean their room, and attend lectures when there’s no one nagging.  Sure the CA might ask why your room is such a filth, or why your unwashed towel smells like the corner of College and Yonge, but eff them, they don’t control you.  You have the freedom to do whatever you want, and you’re going to take full advantage God damnit.  So you start staying out late.  What starts off as a single challenge of beer pong turns into a nightly tradition, and before you know it, you’re knee deep in ping pong balls and red plastic cups.   You do this because you know that none of your peers will grill you.  But soon enough it catches up, and when you fail that bird course everyone is supposed to pass, this house of cards you built comes crashing down.  (In case you've missed the metaphor entirely, laundry and cleaning are defense, playing beer pong and staying out till all hours are offence, and your mom is Demar.  Or your daddy.  However you like it. I guess that makes Dwayne Casey the responsible asshat CA who no one liked in the first couple of months, but slowly grew on as they realized this guy knew his shit  (Sidebar, I don’t think Dwayne Casey knows his shit)). 

So why have the Raptors failed to reach the same level of excellence we witnessed in the first two months of the season? 

Well let’s start with what matters most to coach Casey.  Defense.  Frankly, since Demar went down, the Raptors defense has been easier to get past than 100 level security at the ACC in the fourth quarter.  Now I’m not saying Demar is an all-world defender.  Because he most certainly is not.  All advanced metrics paint him average at best.  What he does on the offensive end however, is where his impact is felt on the defensive end.  His ability to slowdown the game – resulting in less fast breaks for the opposition. His ability to move around on offense – tiring out his defender.  His ability to show leadership and intensity – intangibles that filter through the team.  This was missing, in place you had an immature TRoss, who despite his best efforts is not cut from the same cloth as Demar (If Demar is wool, Tross is flannel).  Now you may ask.  Wait.  Since Demar’s been back we’ve been stinking up the joint to the exact same degree as the 5 games prior to his return.  To this I would say, not really.  Yes the results haven’t been great, but when you strip away the noise of missed open looks (shots I assume any player in the NBA should be able to make), and strength of opponent, you see that defensively, we’re back to where we want to be. 

Since Demar’s return the Raptors defensive rating has climbed back to 101, good enough for 10^th in the league.  During his absence the defensive rating plummeted to 107.3 or 4^th last in the league.   Is this a fluke?  No.  Why?  Because you’re stupid (apparently this rebuttal only works in a face to face argument with an 8 year old).  But really, it’s because even when you isolate pre-injury Demar, the Raptors featured a Defensive rating of 100.9, good for 9^th in the league.  So yes, despite fans claims of Demar’s individual defensive flaws, he is by the numbers, an excellent team defender.   

Granted the offensive rating took a dive - 96.5 post Demar, 110.2 pre Demar, but I chalk that up to an aberration due to the trickledown effect of a tired Kyle Lowry, and a Demar trying to find his flow.  If the offense settles like the defense, which I suspect happens, then everything is once again right with the world.   Who knows, maybe the morning radio shows begin taking notice again, slotting the Raptors somewhere between their two 14 hour Hockey segments.  (asking too much?). 

So yes, this season has been the tale of two teams, but not to the degree of “Panac” that Raptors fans have surmised.  And yes, they haven’t been playing the best OFFENSIVE basketball recently, but don’t let that cloud the impact of an improved (or shall I say back to normal) defense.  The other end of this argument is that opponents are also getting stronger and better, but that’s beside the point.  What the Raptors control is their own quality of play, which by most measures is getting better.  And if that’s not enough for you, then a version of the post Rudy Gay Trade, “We the underdog” Raptors is just a 3 hour drive south.