The Curious Case of Jonas Valanciunas

Courtesy: http://www.zimbio.com/Jonas+Valanciunas+Dwane+Casey/pictures/pro

Jonas Valanciunas - The media buzzword for anyone looking to get the attention of Raptors fans. Terrible 4th quarter play, coupled with questionable substitution patterns however, have all culminated to make this an intriguing topic for discussion.  

At this point it’s common knowledge that Dwayne Casey loves small ball.  He probably still uses flip phones for the versatility and spacing they offer over traditional handsets.  Does this always work however? (Small ball, not flip phones).  Does Dwayne Casey have a method to his madness, or is he simply a mad scientist who’s lost focus?

Showing disappointment, it can be argued, is unjustified given such an unexpected record.  I whole heartedly disagree with this logic.  Of course we can argue.  Just because the bar’s low, doesn’t mean that expectations can’t evolve.  The desire to achieve something greater shouldn’t be subdued by past expectations.  It should mold to fit the current state, and the current state is pretty badass. 

By the Numbers

Numbers don’t lie; they drop truth bombs - tune out now if you don’t like numbers…or truth bombs.  Defensively Jonas isn’t the greatest, he’s okay, right in the meaty part of the bell curve.   Sure Jonas’s numbers don’t scream Marc Gasol, but limiting play in crucial stretches doesn’t get him closer to that level.  To give an idea of where he stacks I’ve broken the analysis into two parts.  An external assessment – comparing Jonas to his peers, and an internal assessment – comparing “4^th Quarter” Jonas to “First 3 Quarters” Jonas. 

External Analysis  

Usage

Among Starting Center’s with more than 25 games played, Jonas ranks 3^rd from the bottom in “Average 4^th Quarter minutes played,” at 5.4.  That’s 10 spots behind Kendrick I- grab-rebounds-through-the-power-of-my-anger Perkins.  His 4^th quarter usage isn’t stellar either.  At 14.6% Jonas ranks 17^th out of 26 Starting Centers.  However, given that the Raptors feature a guard heavy lineup, one that often falls in love with the midrange, that’s not bad.  This usage may ignite some frustration, but it’s generally in line with comparable peers in guard focused lineups (ie Marcin Gortat, Joakin Noah).  In the exact same sample size however, his minutes are 3^rd from the bottom. 

Defense

From a defensive standpoint I’ll focus on Opponent FG percentage at the Rim, and Defensive Efficiency. As a team the Raptors hold opponents to 50.9% on shots at the rim, good enough for 10^th in the league - surprisingly good.  Individually Jonas’s opponents shoot 48.1%, which is just a hair behind Andre Drummond at 47.9%.   This is around league average for a center.  It’s his team defense, measured by his DefRtg, which is atrocious.  Among his peers Jonas ranks dead last in the 4^th Quarter with a NetRtg of -16.5, which gives cadence to Casey’s crunch time preference in deferring to a more mobile big (ie. PPAT).

From an external standpoint it’s obvious that his 4^th quarter team defense is terrible.  His minutes are near the bottom, but his defensive flaws have a large effect on that.  Based on this external comparison, Casey does have a point. If that’s the case however, then how is Jonas earning minutes throughout other portions of the game?

Internal Analysis

Overall	GP	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg	OREB%	DREB%	TS%	USG%
Quarters1-3	47	7.6	106.4	105.5	0.93	11.5	25.6	62.6	20.16
4th Quarter	33	5.4	101.9	118.3	-16.5	8.4	20.4	62.6	14.7

When we actually dig into the numbers it’s pretty glaring the disparity between Jonas’s stats in the first three quarters vs. his numbers in the 4^th.  The most noticeable difference is his defensive efficiency - 118.3 in the 4^th quarter vs. 105.5 in the first three.  The Raptors as a team have a 4th Quarter DefRtg of 106.5 – good enough for 23^rd in the league.  For a team that preaches defense, and makes decisions predicated on this philosophy, their execution is terrible.   The greatest unknown however, is how the team DefRtg would be affected if Jonas received consistent 4^th quarter minutes.  Would the law of averages begin to skew his 4^th quarter numbers towards the mean?

Sure, compared to his peers, Dwayne Casey’s got a point.  His big is near the bottom of the league in nearly all defensive categories, but not throughout the game.  The issue only surfaces in the fourth quarter, which leads to a larger psychological question.  How much has the inconsistent usage of his Center affected Jonas’s confidence in the fourth quarter?  It’s clear that Jonas is league average in the first three quarters, but near the bottom in the fourth.  No other starting Center in the league has such a dramatic swing between the two segments.  It’s obvious that by sitting Jonas for long stretches of the fourth, Casey’s fiddling with a fragile confidence.  It’s like that time on Seinfeld when Elaine’s ex tells her that she’s got a big head, causing her to question everything she’d known about the size of her perfectly normal head.  What seemed acceptable before now suddenly became troubling.  By way of inconsistent minutes, and benching, Dwayne Casey is the ex who keeps telling Jonas he’s got a big head.  Suddenly all the goodwill built during his first three quarters no longer matters.      

It’s obvious the Raptors are better defensively when Jonas hits the bench, but to develop talent requires investing both frustration and hope.  Yea they might feel the weight of some growing pains; they might even loose on account of Jonas missing a blatant assignment.  But these are the growing pains associated with developing youth, especially at the 5.  The Raptors aren’t great right now, they’re good.  Why not use a “good” season to develop a piece that can help you become great. 

How The Raptors Found Their Mojo

Courtesy: http://media.bradenton.com/smedia/2015/01/28/22/17/285-1ogQVi.AuSt.55.jpeg

Halfway through the third it finally hit the Raptors – “Hey, We don’t suck.  Why are we playing like this? Why is Rudy Gay lighting us up for 17 in the first half? And why is Demarcus Cousins so angry all the time?”

They answered the first two questions by torching the Kings in the latter half of the third, along with much of the fourth - buoyed by a defense that finally gave a shit, and an offense that finally exorcised the spirit of Kevin O’Neil (The magician behind an offense that once dropped 56 points….in a game).  The last question really has no answer.  Perhaps Cousins is a really nice guy having a case of the Bynum’s.  Or perhaps it hits him every couple of minutes - "I"m playing on the Kings".  A franchise that was once run by two Maloofs (adjective), and now an owner who fired the teams head coach after its best start in nearly a decade.  (I’m all for eccentric owners, they really make things interesting, most of them however, suffer from the overconfidence of past achievements.  Vivek exemplifies this to the nth degree.  He’s like the Jason Terry of owners).    

I’d also like to thank the Raptors for not making me look like an idiot with yesterday’s Overreaction column.  It was never Tuesday’s win that inspired my column, but the way in which they won.  The Raptors looked like a confident team.  Much like the big kid in the playground who’s always picked on by the skinny kid, the Raptors finally had enough, and crushed the little turd.  This carried over to last night. 

Just two weeks ago the Raptors were embarrassed at home by the likes of the Pistons, Pelicans (minus AD), and the Hornets (Minus Al Jefferson).  In between they were slaughtered by tougher opponents like the Hawks, Griz and Suns.  With this in mind, a couple of blowouts against two weaker opponents is a welcome sign.   

Team	GP	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	AST%	AST/TO	AST Ratio	TO Ratio	PACE
Last 2 Games	2	96	117.2	99.5	64.9	1.72	19.3	15.2	94.04
Pre Injury	26	1263	111	102.6	53.3	1.71	16.2	12.5	95.25
Jan 2 - Jan 24 (vs. Det)	12	576	101.7	105.9	57.5	1.34	16.2	16.1	97.31

Take a look at the table above.  What stands out most is the improved Defense.  Another point of emphasis is their PACE, which slowed down considerably from the unsustainable PACE during their shitty stretch.  A slower PACE typically translates to a more organized defense.  Of course team defensive schemes trump everything, but an up tempo PACE often leads to fast breaks on the other end, which destroy Defensive efficiency.  The Offensive Rating is a little crazy right now, but there’s no question that it’s much better than the 101.7 rating during the shitty stretch. 

The turnovers last night were a bit of a concern, but they did address their first quarter woes by not looking like a Tier 3 Hoop Dome Summer league team.  What impressed me most was a Demar Derozen back to his old self - fearlessly attacking the rim and getting to the line a bunch. 

The real test for these Raptors comes this weekend, when they roll into Washington.  They’ve done a good job at building confidence by beating on the weaker guys.  Heading into Washington they should hopefully feel like Jason Terry after a 1-12 shooting night, ie. on top of the world (that 1 shot being a dagger that keeps the irrational confidence machine humming).  Here’s hoping that the stat line doesn’t reflect a typical Jason Terry shooting night.