The Curious Case of Jonas Valanciunas

Courtesy: http://www.zimbio.com/Jonas+Valanciunas+Dwane+Casey/pictures/pro

Jonas Valanciunas - The media buzzword for anyone looking to get the attention of Raptors fans. Terrible 4th quarter play, coupled with questionable substitution patterns however, have all culminated to make this an intriguing topic for discussion.  

At this point it’s common knowledge that Dwayne Casey loves small ball.  He probably still uses flip phones for the versatility and spacing they offer over traditional handsets.  Does this always work however? (Small ball, not flip phones).  Does Dwayne Casey have a method to his madness, or is he simply a mad scientist who’s lost focus?

Showing disappointment, it can be argued, is unjustified given such an unexpected record.  I whole heartedly disagree with this logic.  Of course we can argue.  Just because the bar’s low, doesn’t mean that expectations can’t evolve.  The desire to achieve something greater shouldn’t be subdued by past expectations.  It should mold to fit the current state, and the current state is pretty badass. 

By the Numbers

Numbers don’t lie; they drop truth bombs - tune out now if you don’t like numbers…or truth bombs.  Defensively Jonas isn’t the greatest, he’s okay, right in the meaty part of the bell curve.   Sure Jonas’s numbers don’t scream Marc Gasol, but limiting play in crucial stretches doesn’t get him closer to that level.  To give an idea of where he stacks I’ve broken the analysis into two parts.  An external assessment – comparing Jonas to his peers, and an internal assessment – comparing “4^th Quarter” Jonas to “First 3 Quarters” Jonas. 

External Analysis  

Usage

Among Starting Center’s with more than 25 games played, Jonas ranks 3^rd from the bottom in “Average 4^th Quarter minutes played,” at 5.4.  That’s 10 spots behind Kendrick I- grab-rebounds-through-the-power-of-my-anger Perkins.  His 4^th quarter usage isn’t stellar either.  At 14.6% Jonas ranks 17^th out of 26 Starting Centers.  However, given that the Raptors feature a guard heavy lineup, one that often falls in love with the midrange, that’s not bad.  This usage may ignite some frustration, but it’s generally in line with comparable peers in guard focused lineups (ie Marcin Gortat, Joakin Noah).  In the exact same sample size however, his minutes are 3^rd from the bottom. 

Defense

From a defensive standpoint I’ll focus on Opponent FG percentage at the Rim, and Defensive Efficiency. As a team the Raptors hold opponents to 50.9% on shots at the rim, good enough for 10^th in the league - surprisingly good.  Individually Jonas’s opponents shoot 48.1%, which is just a hair behind Andre Drummond at 47.9%.   This is around league average for a center.  It’s his team defense, measured by his DefRtg, which is atrocious.  Among his peers Jonas ranks dead last in the 4^th Quarter with a NetRtg of -16.5, which gives cadence to Casey’s crunch time preference in deferring to a more mobile big (ie. PPAT).

From an external standpoint it’s obvious that his 4^th quarter team defense is terrible.  His minutes are near the bottom, but his defensive flaws have a large effect on that.  Based on this external comparison, Casey does have a point. If that’s the case however, then how is Jonas earning minutes throughout other portions of the game?

Internal Analysis

Overall	GP	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg	OREB%	DREB%	TS%	USG%
Quarters1-3	47	7.6	106.4	105.5	0.93	11.5	25.6	62.6	20.16
4th Quarter	33	5.4	101.9	118.3	-16.5	8.4	20.4	62.6	14.7

When we actually dig into the numbers it’s pretty glaring the disparity between Jonas’s stats in the first three quarters vs. his numbers in the 4^th.  The most noticeable difference is his defensive efficiency - 118.3 in the 4^th quarter vs. 105.5 in the first three.  The Raptors as a team have a 4th Quarter DefRtg of 106.5 – good enough for 23^rd in the league.  For a team that preaches defense, and makes decisions predicated on this philosophy, their execution is terrible.   The greatest unknown however, is how the team DefRtg would be affected if Jonas received consistent 4^th quarter minutes.  Would the law of averages begin to skew his 4^th quarter numbers towards the mean?

Sure, compared to his peers, Dwayne Casey’s got a point.  His big is near the bottom of the league in nearly all defensive categories, but not throughout the game.  The issue only surfaces in the fourth quarter, which leads to a larger psychological question.  How much has the inconsistent usage of his Center affected Jonas’s confidence in the fourth quarter?  It’s clear that Jonas is league average in the first three quarters, but near the bottom in the fourth.  No other starting Center in the league has such a dramatic swing between the two segments.  It’s obvious that by sitting Jonas for long stretches of the fourth, Casey’s fiddling with a fragile confidence.  It’s like that time on Seinfeld when Elaine’s ex tells her that she’s got a big head, causing her to question everything she’d known about the size of her perfectly normal head.  What seemed acceptable before now suddenly became troubling.  By way of inconsistent minutes, and benching, Dwayne Casey is the ex who keeps telling Jonas he’s got a big head.  Suddenly all the goodwill built during his first three quarters no longer matters.      

It’s obvious the Raptors are better defensively when Jonas hits the bench, but to develop talent requires investing both frustration and hope.  Yea they might feel the weight of some growing pains; they might even loose on account of Jonas missing a blatant assignment.  But these are the growing pains associated with developing youth, especially at the 5.  The Raptors aren’t great right now, they’re good.  Why not use a “good” season to develop a piece that can help you become great. 

Are The Raps Back to Normal? (The Overreaction Column)

Damn that felt good.  Two games removed from the Philly debacle , the Raptors kind’a sort’a looked like their old selves (Pre- Demar-Injury selves, not 5-years-prior-to-December-2013 selves).  The ball was moving, almost everyone (Jonas says hi!) was getting a touch, and the defense looked solid.  That’s the story our eyes told, do the numbers agree?

In short, they sure as hell do. 

For comparison purposes I’ve split the Raptors season into two groups – Pre-Demar injury, and the shitty stretch (Jan 2 – Jan 25).  Yesterday pleased our eyes because, by the numbers, it reflected the same “Pre-Injury” level of performance, to which we’ve grown accustomed:

Team	GP	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	AST%	AST/TO	AST Ratio	TO Ratio
VS Indy	1	48	113.1	94.7	61.8	1.75	17.4	13
Pre Injury (Oct 29 – Nov 28)	26	1263	111	102.6	53.3	1.71	16.2	12.5
The shitty stretch (Jan 2 – Jan 25)	12	576	101.7	105.9	57.5	1.34	16.2	16.1

It all starts with turnovers.  During the shitty stretch the Raptors averaged 16.1 turnovers per 100 possessions.  Good enough for 21^st in the league. Always hailed as a low turnover team (I remember the days when it was compulsory to point out Jose Calderon’s AST/TO ratio with every mention of his name),  The Raptors got away from this during the shitty stretch.  A lot had to do with tired legs, as well as guys trying to do too much (aka crunch time Kyle). Yesterday they got back to their old selves, turning the ball over  only13 times per 100 possessions - during the pre-injury stretch they sat at 12.5.

The assists ratio crept a little higher, but the biggest difference was an offense finally nailing open looks.  The OffRtg (113.1) climbed to the normal badassery we’ve grown accustomed to.  Of course a rating of 111 (pre-demar) is unsustainable, but given our fire power, so is a “shitty stretch” rating of 101.7.  The biggest difference however, has been on the defensive end, where the reduction in turnovers, coupled with Demar’s return, have had a profound impact.   

Granted, one game is a very very small sample size.  This may all change tonight if they make Darren Colison look like DJ Augstin, who looked like Old Derrick Rose just two nights ago.  On top of all this, there’s still something troubling that 1^st Quarter offense.  But for sanity's sake, let’s hope the shitty stretch was an aberration.  Yesterday was a good sign of that.  

The Toronto Raptors: A Tale of Two Teams

Like the regret of a long night on King West, this season’s Toronto Raptors have been mesmerizing and cringe worthy, dividing the two - a single event.  Sure the night started off great, but at some point it took an odd turn, you don’t know when, you don’t know how, but you now find yourself laying down with your eyes open, trying to piece it together, trying to figure out just what happened.

Some would draw the line sometime after the Portland game - where the Raptors lost in a valiant

overtime effort.  I draw the line on that Friday night on November 28^th, when Demar, slipping on Drakes tears, pulled his groin.  In the following ten games the team showed the poise of a first year undergrad entering residence life for the first time.  They were giddy, they were passing, they were making shots, and in between timeouts we even witnessed Lou Williams destroying Greg Stiemsma in a heated game of beer pong.  It all came crashing down however. 

Why? 

Because much like the first year undergrad, it was all a façade, created by a honeymoon period.  The team began missing mom’s home cooked meals and the pressures of adult responsibilities became burdensome.  I mean who wants to do their laundry, clean their room, and attend lectures when there’s no one nagging.  Sure the CA might ask why your room is such a filth, or why your unwashed towel smells like the corner of College and Yonge, but eff them, they don’t control you.  You have the freedom to do whatever you want, and you’re going to take full advantage God damnit.  So you start staying out late.  What starts off as a single challenge of beer pong turns into a nightly tradition, and before you know it, you’re knee deep in ping pong balls and red plastic cups.   You do this because you know that none of your peers will grill you.  But soon enough it catches up, and when you fail that bird course everyone is supposed to pass, this house of cards you built comes crashing down.  (In case you've missed the metaphor entirely, laundry and cleaning are defense, playing beer pong and staying out till all hours are offence, and your mom is Demar.  Or your daddy.  However you like it. I guess that makes Dwayne Casey the responsible asshat CA who no one liked in the first couple of months, but slowly grew on as they realized this guy knew his shit  (Sidebar, I don’t think Dwayne Casey knows his shit)). 

So why have the Raptors failed to reach the same level of excellence we witnessed in the first two months of the season? 

Well let’s start with what matters most to coach Casey.  Defense.  Frankly, since Demar went down, the Raptors defense has been easier to get past than 100 level security at the ACC in the fourth quarter.  Now I’m not saying Demar is an all-world defender.  Because he most certainly is not.  All advanced metrics paint him average at best.  What he does on the offensive end however, is where his impact is felt on the defensive end.  His ability to slowdown the game – resulting in less fast breaks for the opposition. His ability to move around on offense – tiring out his defender.  His ability to show leadership and intensity – intangibles that filter through the team.  This was missing, in place you had an immature TRoss, who despite his best efforts is not cut from the same cloth as Demar (If Demar is wool, Tross is flannel).  Now you may ask.  Wait.  Since Demar’s been back we’ve been stinking up the joint to the exact same degree as the 5 games prior to his return.  To this I would say, not really.  Yes the results haven’t been great, but when you strip away the noise of missed open looks (shots I assume any player in the NBA should be able to make), and strength of opponent, you see that defensively, we’re back to where we want to be. 

Since Demar’s return the Raptors defensive rating has climbed back to 101, good enough for 10^th in the league.  During his absence the defensive rating plummeted to 107.3 or 4^th last in the league.   Is this a fluke?  No.  Why?  Because you’re stupid (apparently this rebuttal only works in a face to face argument with an 8 year old).  But really, it’s because even when you isolate pre-injury Demar, the Raptors featured a Defensive rating of 100.9, good for 9^th in the league.  So yes, despite fans claims of Demar’s individual defensive flaws, he is by the numbers, an excellent team defender.   

Granted the offensive rating took a dive - 96.5 post Demar, 110.2 pre Demar, but I chalk that up to an aberration due to the trickledown effect of a tired Kyle Lowry, and a Demar trying to find his flow.  If the offense settles like the defense, which I suspect happens, then everything is once again right with the world.   Who knows, maybe the morning radio shows begin taking notice again, slotting the Raptors somewhere between their two 14 hour Hockey segments.  (asking too much?). 

So yes, this season has been the tale of two teams, but not to the degree of “Panac” that Raptors fans have surmised.  And yes, they haven’t been playing the best OFFENSIVE basketball recently, but don’t let that cloud the impact of an improved (or shall I say back to normal) defense.  The other end of this argument is that opponents are also getting stronger and better, but that’s beside the point.  What the Raptors control is their own quality of play, which by most measures is getting better.  And if that’s not enough for you, then a version of the post Rudy Gay Trade, “We the underdog” Raptors is just a 3 hour drive south.