Are The Raps Back to Normal? (The Overreaction Column)

Damn that felt good.  Two games removed from the Philly debacle , the Raptors kind’a sort’a looked like their old selves (Pre- Demar-Injury selves, not 5-years-prior-to-December-2013 selves).  The ball was moving, almost everyone (Jonas says hi!) was getting a touch, and the defense looked solid.  That’s the story our eyes told, do the numbers agree?

In short, they sure as hell do. 

For comparison purposes I’ve split the Raptors season into two groups – Pre-Demar injury, and the shitty stretch (Jan 2 – Jan 25).  Yesterday pleased our eyes because, by the numbers, it reflected the same “Pre-Injury” level of performance, to which we’ve grown accustomed:

Team	GP	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	AST%	AST/TO	AST Ratio	TO Ratio
VS Indy	1	48	113.1	94.7	61.8	1.75	17.4	13
Pre Injury (Oct 29 – Nov 28)	26	1263	111	102.6	53.3	1.71	16.2	12.5
The shitty stretch (Jan 2 – Jan 25)	12	576	101.7	105.9	57.5	1.34	16.2	16.1

It all starts with turnovers.  During the shitty stretch the Raptors averaged 16.1 turnovers per 100 possessions.  Good enough for 21^st in the league. Always hailed as a low turnover team (I remember the days when it was compulsory to point out Jose Calderon’s AST/TO ratio with every mention of his name),  The Raptors got away from this during the shitty stretch.  A lot had to do with tired legs, as well as guys trying to do too much (aka crunch time Kyle). Yesterday they got back to their old selves, turning the ball over  only13 times per 100 possessions - during the pre-injury stretch they sat at 12.5.

The assists ratio crept a little higher, but the biggest difference was an offense finally nailing open looks.  The OffRtg (113.1) climbed to the normal badassery we’ve grown accustomed to.  Of course a rating of 111 (pre-demar) is unsustainable, but given our fire power, so is a “shitty stretch” rating of 101.7.  The biggest difference however, has been on the defensive end, where the reduction in turnovers, coupled with Demar’s return, have had a profound impact.   

Granted, one game is a very very small sample size.  This may all change tonight if they make Darren Colison look like DJ Augstin, who looked like Old Derrick Rose just two nights ago.  On top of all this, there’s still something troubling that 1^st Quarter offense.  But for sanity's sake, let’s hope the shitty stretch was an aberration.  Yesterday was a good sign of that.  

The Toronto Raptors: A Tale of Two Teams

Like the regret of a long night on King West, this season’s Toronto Raptors have been mesmerizing and cringe worthy, dividing the two - a single event.  Sure the night started off great, but at some point it took an odd turn, you don’t know when, you don’t know how, but you now find yourself laying down with your eyes open, trying to piece it together, trying to figure out just what happened.

Some would draw the line sometime after the Portland game - where the Raptors lost in a valiant

overtime effort.  I draw the line on that Friday night on November 28^th, when Demar, slipping on Drakes tears, pulled his groin.  In the following ten games the team showed the poise of a first year undergrad entering residence life for the first time.  They were giddy, they were passing, they were making shots, and in between timeouts we even witnessed Lou Williams destroying Greg Stiemsma in a heated game of beer pong.  It all came crashing down however. 

Why? 

Because much like the first year undergrad, it was all a façade, created by a honeymoon period.  The team began missing mom’s home cooked meals and the pressures of adult responsibilities became burdensome.  I mean who wants to do their laundry, clean their room, and attend lectures when there’s no one nagging.  Sure the CA might ask why your room is such a filth, or why your unwashed towel smells like the corner of College and Yonge, but eff them, they don’t control you.  You have the freedom to do whatever you want, and you’re going to take full advantage God damnit.  So you start staying out late.  What starts off as a single challenge of beer pong turns into a nightly tradition, and before you know it, you’re knee deep in ping pong balls and red plastic cups.   You do this because you know that none of your peers will grill you.  But soon enough it catches up, and when you fail that bird course everyone is supposed to pass, this house of cards you built comes crashing down.  (In case you've missed the metaphor entirely, laundry and cleaning are defense, playing beer pong and staying out till all hours are offence, and your mom is Demar.  Or your daddy.  However you like it. I guess that makes Dwayne Casey the responsible asshat CA who no one liked in the first couple of months, but slowly grew on as they realized this guy knew his shit  (Sidebar, I don’t think Dwayne Casey knows his shit)). 

So why have the Raptors failed to reach the same level of excellence we witnessed in the first two months of the season? 

Well let’s start with what matters most to coach Casey.  Defense.  Frankly, since Demar went down, the Raptors defense has been easier to get past than 100 level security at the ACC in the fourth quarter.  Now I’m not saying Demar is an all-world defender.  Because he most certainly is not.  All advanced metrics paint him average at best.  What he does on the offensive end however, is where his impact is felt on the defensive end.  His ability to slowdown the game – resulting in less fast breaks for the opposition. His ability to move around on offense – tiring out his defender.  His ability to show leadership and intensity – intangibles that filter through the team.  This was missing, in place you had an immature TRoss, who despite his best efforts is not cut from the same cloth as Demar (If Demar is wool, Tross is flannel).  Now you may ask.  Wait.  Since Demar’s been back we’ve been stinking up the joint to the exact same degree as the 5 games prior to his return.  To this I would say, not really.  Yes the results haven’t been great, but when you strip away the noise of missed open looks (shots I assume any player in the NBA should be able to make), and strength of opponent, you see that defensively, we’re back to where we want to be. 

Since Demar’s return the Raptors defensive rating has climbed back to 101, good enough for 10^th in the league.  During his absence the defensive rating plummeted to 107.3 or 4^th last in the league.   Is this a fluke?  No.  Why?  Because you’re stupid (apparently this rebuttal only works in a face to face argument with an 8 year old).  But really, it’s because even when you isolate pre-injury Demar, the Raptors featured a Defensive rating of 100.9, good for 9^th in the league.  So yes, despite fans claims of Demar’s individual defensive flaws, he is by the numbers, an excellent team defender.   

Granted the offensive rating took a dive - 96.5 post Demar, 110.2 pre Demar, but I chalk that up to an aberration due to the trickledown effect of a tired Kyle Lowry, and a Demar trying to find his flow.  If the offense settles like the defense, which I suspect happens, then everything is once again right with the world.   Who knows, maybe the morning radio shows begin taking notice again, slotting the Raptors somewhere between their two 14 hour Hockey segments.  (asking too much?). 

So yes, this season has been the tale of two teams, but not to the degree of “Panac” that Raptors fans have surmised.  And yes, they haven’t been playing the best OFFENSIVE basketball recently, but don’t let that cloud the impact of an improved (or shall I say back to normal) defense.  The other end of this argument is that opponents are also getting stronger and better, but that’s beside the point.  What the Raptors control is their own quality of play, which by most measures is getting better.  And if that’s not enough for you, then a version of the post Rudy Gay Trade, “We the underdog” Raptors is just a 3 hour drive south.       

Kyle Lowry: The All-Star We've Always Wanted

Kyle Lowry the All-Star.  Kyle Lowry the All-Star Starter.  Not since the Boshtrich have the words Raptors, All-Star, Starter been uttered in the same sentence - Alternatively neither have the words “soft cottenelle bitch,” and never shall they.  We did it Canada (#wetheclingy). Through our crazed persistence, over the top in your face messaging (looking at you Matt #NBABALLOT  Devlin), and pleas to government officials (Thanks Stephen Harper!) our boy made it!

But we just can’t have nice things can we?

Well, not surprisingly, there’s a camp out there claiming Kyle’s inclusion as undeserved.   A very small camp.  Not even really a camp, more like a couple of kids pitching a tent in the backyard.  Actually it’s more like one kid, and he’s not a kid, he’s my idiot friend.  Okay I’ll admit, I just need an angle, one that lets me justify just how badass Kyle really is, and why Kyrie Irving sucks, and to re-inforce why my friend is such an idiot. 

By all statistical measures Kyle Lowry is having the best season in Raptors Point Guard history – bold statement, I know.  I live on the edge.  If you told every NBA team to make a list of their quality point guards – past and present, then take that list to the grocery store, the Lakers and Celtics would spend an entire day at Loblaws.  The Raptors would need about five minutes at an Esso On-The-Run, which includes 4 minutes for pumping gas.  Point being, we have an insignificant history. 

Yea sure Alvin Williams was great, but statistically he didn’t do much.  We loved him because he was part of a machine that made VC do unimaginably cool shit.  We also loved him because of his heart and determination.  We loved Jose Calderon for a while – we backed him up when KG wagged his finger in a childish power-play.  We also loved him because he was a great teammate (Sidebar, I wonder who’s taken over Gatorade distribution duties.  I have my money on Stiemsma.  I mean if he doesn’t, then what exactly is he good for?  He’s not even that great a hype guy – more on this in a later post).  In Kyle we have the perfect mix.  He’s got heart, determination, toughness, and a team first attitude.  The best part?  Kyle is more than just the, “he has heart and determination and he try’s really really hard” good.  He’s legit good, to the point where others notice, and statistics back up.   

We as Toronto sports fans have been subject to such an array of dismal talent, that our definition of great morphed somewhere along the way.  We began throwing ourselves behind players who just looked like they gave a shit (What’s up JYD, John McDonald, Leo Komarov), because when they did have talent, shit didn’t matter (eg. Chris Bosh, VC, Phil Kessel).  In Kyle, we finally have a dude who fits this morphed definition of great, but also proves it in a way that the rest of the un-tortured world does, through statistics. 

Among Eastern Conference players Kyle ranks 6^th in PER (I’m not counting Hassan Whiteside, no logic, I just don’t like his name, and he fits into my 2012 Jeremy Lin outlier rule).  Among Eastern Conference point guards he’s 2^nd in PER – Jeff Teague is first, but he’s got a usage 2 points below Kyle, which really fluffs efficiency (the more you handle the ball, the more tired you are, the less efficient you become).   Point being Kyle is really good from an efficiency perspective.  He’s also extraordinary from a pure numbers perspective – you can go to ESPN and check those yourself.  Granted he’s not been playing his best ball the last couple of weeks, but shit happens, he’s human, you get tired.   Kiss my ass idiot friend. After carrying the burden for nearly a month the dude is flat out beat. 

This shouldn't be a stain on his record however.  When you look at Kyle’s entire body of work it’s easy to surmise that he really is the most important piece to the puzzle.  A motivated Kyle Lowry is the best weapon to have.  Just look at what he did last year when he entered “eff you” mode after that botched Knicks trade.  Point being, a two week aberration isn't enough to derail a year of proven success.  I understand that as a fan base we've been taunted by greatness over and over - I’m looking at you 2002 VC, 2001 Maple Leafs, 2013 Blue Jays, Pre inception over-hyped Toronto FC.   In those moments however, when greatness does present itself, sometimes it’s worth it to enjoy it, without qualification.  Sustained greatness is a rarity that only comes every so often, but to sustain you must first achieve.   

So to my idiot friend who thinks that two weeks of average basketball tells the tale of an 82 game season.  I testify that 2 months of out of your mind basketball doesn't either, but the middle ground is still pretty damn sweet.  So don’t let his recent struggles distract you from truly appreciating the player we have.  We've always wanted a guy with grit, determination, and heart.  We finally have him, the kicker.  He’s actually really good.